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Miles Ross
Miles Ross

Black Swan


Upon arriving at Lincoln Center, Nina sees Lily dancing as Odile and confronts her about their night together. She seems confused by Nina's insinuation that they had sex and denies going home with Nina, saying she went home with one of the men from the bar. Nina becomes convinced Lily intends to take her place, especially after learning that Thomas has made Lily her alternate. Nina's hallucinations grow stronger and her injuries increase, going as far as hallucinating herself transforming into Odile. On opening night, she shouts to her mother, "I'm the swan queen, you're the one who never left the corps!", after her mother tells her she called the theater and told them Nina was not well enough to perform and tries to convince Nina that the role has been too much for her. As Nina is late, Lily is prepared to replace her. Nina confronts Thomas, who is impressed by her newfound confidence and allows her to take back her roles.




Black Swan


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Towards the end of the ballet's second act, Nina is distracted by another hallucination and loses her stability as Odette. This causes the male dancer playing the prince to drop her on stage, which infuriates Thomas. She returns to her dressing room and finds Lily preparing as Odile. During a confrontation, Lily transforms into Nina. The two fight, breaking a mirror. Nina stabs her doppelgänger with a large shard of glass from the mirror, killing her. The body reverts to Lily. Nina hides the corpse in the bathroom, and takes the stage, dancing flawlessly as Odile and seemingly turns into a black swan, her arms covered in feathers. Amidst a standing ovation from the audience, Nina surprises Thomas with a passionate kiss and returns to her dressing room.


Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility.[7] The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[8] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent.


However, in 1697, Dutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swans, in Western Australia.[citation needed] The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century, John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.[9]


According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties.[11][12]


The practical aim of Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict events which are unpredictable, but to build robustness against negative events while still exploiting positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to unpredictable losses. On the subject of business, and quantitative finance in particular, Taleb critiques the widespread use of the normal distribution model employed in financial engineering, calling it a Great Intellectual Fraud. Taleb elaborates the robustness concept as a central topic of his later book, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.


Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".[14]


Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".[15]


A black swan event in the stock market is often a market crash that exceeds six standard deviations, making it exceedingly rare from a probabilistic standpoint. Some have argued that stock prices are "fat-tailed" and that such events are, in reality, more frequent than the statistics would let on."}},"@type": "Question","name": "Why Do They Call It a Black Swan Event?","acceptedAnswer": "@type": "Answer","text": "A black swan is considered to be rare, since most swans are white. In fact, the story goes that black swans were thought once to not at all exist, until finally one was discovered. The lesson is that what we think are very rare events may be more common than previously thought.","@type": "Question","name": "What Is a Grey Swan Event?","acceptedAnswer": "@type": "Answer","text": "A grey swan event is an outlier, but which is more probably than a black swan. As a result, people can better prepare for and hedge against a grey swan than for a black swan."]}]}] Investing Stocks Bonds Fixed Income Mutual Funds ETFs Options 401(k) Roth IRA Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Markets View All Simulator Login / Portfolio Trade Research My Games Leaderboard Economy Government Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy View All Personal Finance Financial Literacy Retirement Budgeting Saving Taxes Home Ownership View All News Markets Companies Earnings Economy Crypto Personal Finance Government View All Reviews Best Online Brokers Best Life Insurance Companies Best CD Rates Best Savings Accounts Best Personal Loans Best Credit Repair Companies Best Mortgage Rates Best Auto Loan Rates Best Credit Cards View All Academy Investing for Beginners Trading for Beginners Become a Day Trader Technical Analysis All Investing Courses All Trading Courses View All TradeSearchSearchPlease fill out this field.SearchSearchPlease fill out this field.InvestingInvesting Stocks Bonds Fixed Income Mutual Funds ETFs Options 401(k) Roth IRA Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Markets View All SimulatorSimulator Login / Portfolio Trade Research My Games Leaderboard EconomyEconomy Government Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy View All Personal FinancePersonal Finance Financial Literacy Retirement Budgeting Saving Taxes Home Ownership View All NewsNews Markets Companies Earnings Economy Crypto Personal Finance Government View All ReviewsReviews Best Online Brokers Best Life Insurance Companies Best CD Rates Best Savings Accounts Best Personal Loans Best Credit Repair Companies Best Mortgage Rates Best Auto Loan Rates Best Credit Cards View All AcademyAcademy Investing for Beginners Trading for Beginners Become a Day Trader Technical Analysis All Investing Courses All Trading Courses View All Financial Terms Newsletter About Us Follow Us Facebook Instagram LinkedIn TikTok Twitter YouTube Table of ContentsExpandTable of ContentsWhat Is a Black Swan?Understanding a Black SwanSpecial ConsiderationsExamples of Past Black Swan EventsWhat Is a Black Swan Event in the Stock Market?Why Do They Call It a Black Swan Event?What Is a Grey Swan Event?InvestingMarketsBlack Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and HistoryBy


Taleb later used the 2008 financial crisis and the idea of black swan events to argue that if a broken system is allowed to fail, it actually strengthens it against the catastrophe of future black swan events. He also argued that conversely, a system that is propped up and insulated from risk ultimately becomes more vulnerable to catastrophic loss in the face of rare, unpredictable events.


A black swan event in the stock market is often a market crash that exceeds six standard deviations, making it exceedingly rare from a probabilistic standpoint. Some have argued that stock prices are "fat-tailed" and that such events are, in reality, more frequent than the statistics would let on.


A black swan is considered to be rare, since most swans are white. In fact, the story goes that black swans were thought once to not at all exist, until finally one was discovered. The lesson is that what we think are very rare events may be more common than previously thought.


Black Swan Records was the first black-owned recording company that sold popular music to black audiences. Black Swan Records specialized in jazz and blues recordings, but it also became the first company to record black classical musicians. During its brief existence from 1921 and 1923, Black Swan Records released over 180 records, a number that far surpassed any subsequent black-owned record company until the 1950s.


We currently have a large number of Larkspur Press titles in stock so if you wish you may contact us directly at bswan@blackswanbooks.net or call (859) 252-7255. Our current inventory of the special editions is also listed on-line. We accept credit cards or checks.


And, since the propensity to normalize can be attributed to a blind spot in human cognition (that is, people are hardwired to normalize), should it even be an attribute of a black swan in the first place?


Terrorism has two characteristics that make it prone to myth making--its black swan nature and its burstiness. Essayist Nassim Taleb defines a black swan incident as one that falls outside the realm of regular expectations, has a high impact, and defies predictions. The term is based on the observation that before they visited Australia, Europeans had assumed that all swans were white; an assumption that at the time was supported (for Europeans at least) by their own experience. Taleb claims that the coordinated terrorist attacks of 9/11 are a perfect example of a black swan event because they were unexpected, had a huge impact on policy and were difficult to predict. One of the major challenges in responding to terrorism is that a handful of very rare cases can have a disproportionate effect on setting the agenda for the phenomena more generally. 041b061a72


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